Group A
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Mexico43%31%19%91%
Korea Republic24%28%28%70%
Czechia21%26%30%64%
South Africa12%16%23%35%
World Cup win probability calculator
Real FIFA World Cup 2026 groups with source-backed Elo ratings.
48 teams12 groupsLocal Elo scenario modelNot official odds
Selected team snapshotSpainESP
Rank#1baseline #1
Elo2159#1
Champion5.7%baseline 5.7%
Leader gap0%
Final16.9%baseline 16.9%
Group advance98.3%baseline 98.3%
Model factorsSelected-team base scores vs current scenario
Attack+3.8
Base 95Scenario 98.8
Defense+1.5
Base 95Scenario 96.5
Form0
Base 95Scenario 95
Probability leadersTop teams for the selected stage, with current team kept in view
Champion chanceField distributionAll teams grouped by champion probability
Probability shareFavorites2 teams11.1%Selected team
Contenders12 teams43%
Sleepers22 teams40%
Long shots12 teams5.9%
| # | Team | Elo | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2159#1 | 5.7% | 16.9% | 26.4% | 41.1% | 63.8% | 98.3% | |
| 2 | 2148#2 | 5.4% | 16.2% | 25.6% | 40% | 62.7% | 97.6% | |
| 3 | 2134#3 | 4.7% | 14.4% | 23.3% | 37.3% | 59.9% | 95.8% | |
| 4 | 2031#5 | 4.1% | 12.9% | 21.2% | 35% | 57.6% | 94.8% | |
| 5 | 2046#4 | 4% | 12.7% | 21.1% | 34.8% | 57.6% | 94.9% | |
| 6 | 2013#6 | 3.8% | 11.9% | 19.9% | 33.2% | 55.2% | 91.9% | |
| 7 | 1971#8 | 3.7% | 11.7% | 19.6% | 32.9% | 55.1% | 92.3% | |
| 8 | 2004#7 | 3.6% | 11.4% | 19.2% | 32.2% | 54.1% | 90.7% | |
| 9 | 1943#9 | 3.5% | 11.5% | 19.5% | 33% | 56.1% | 95.3% | |
| 10 | 1908#13 | 3.3% | 10.8% | 18.5% | 31.5% | 53.6% | 91.4% | |
| 11 | 1943#9 | 3.2% | 10.3% | 17.8% | 30.6% | 52.7% | 91% | |
| 12 | 1934#11 | 3.1% | 10% | 17.1% | 29.4% | 50.3% | 86.2% | |
| 13 | 1882#16 | 3% | 9.9% | 17.1% | 29.4% | 50.8% | 87.7% | |
| 14 | 1871#17 | 3% | 9.8% | 17% | 29.4% | 50.9% | 88.3% | |
| 15 | 1910#12 | 2.9% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 29% | 50.6% | 88.3% | |
| 16 | 1888#14 | 2.9% | 9.5% | 16.3% | 28.3% | 49.1% | 85.2% | |
| 17 | 1886#15 | 2.7% | 8.9% | 15.5% | 27.1% | 47.4% | 83.2% | |
| 18 | 1841#19 | 2.5% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 26% | 45.8% | 80.7% | |
| 19 | 1852#18 | 2.5% | 8.3% | 14.5% | 25.3% | 44.3% | 77.8% | |
| 20 | 1821#21 | 2.2% | 7.3% | 13% | 23.1% | 41.3% | 74.2% | |
| 21 | 1764#25 | 2.1% | 7.2% | 13% | 23.6% | 42.9% | 78.2% | |
| 22 | 1823#20 | 2.1% | 7% | 12.4% | 22.1% | 39.6% | 71.1% | |
| 23 | 1798#24 | 1.8% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 20.2% | 36.6% | 66.7% | |
| 24 | 1816#22 | 1.8% | 6.2% | 11.2% | 20.3% | 36.9% | 67.6% | |
| 25 | 1764#25 | 1.8% | 6.3% | 11.6% | 21.7% | 40.4% | 76% | |
| 26 | 1723#32 | 1.6% | 5.7% | 10.6% | 19.8% | 37% | 69.8% | |
| 27 | 1800#23 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 9.5% | 17.5% | 32.3% | 60% | |
| 28 | 1731#30 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 9.6% | 17.9% | 33.3% | 62.5% | |
| 29 | 1756#27 | 1.5% | 5.1% | 9.5% | 17.6% | 32.6% | 61% | |
| 30 | 1727#31 | 1.4% | 5.1% | 9.6% | 18% | 33.8% | 64.2% | |
| 31 | 1742#29 | 1.4% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 17.4% | 33.1% | 63.6% | |
| 32 | 1680#34 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 9.1% | 17.4% | 33.1% | 63.8% | |
| 33 | 1745#28 | 1.3% | 4.8% | 8.9% | 16.8% | 31.6% | 60.1% | |
| 34 | 1704#33 | 1.2% | 4.2% | 7.9% | 14.9% | 28.2% | 53.9% | |
| 35 | 1605#39 | 1% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 14.4% | 28.5% | 57.1% | |
| 36 | 1658#35 | 1% | 3.6% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 26% | 51.1% | |
| 37 | 1622#38 | 0.8% | 3% | 5.7% | 11.2% | 22% | 43.7% | |
| 38 | 1596#40 | 0.7% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 10% | 19.9% | 39.9% | |
| 39 | 1631#36 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 9% | 18% | 36.3% | |
| 40 | 1628#37 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 8.4% | 16.8% | 34.3% | |
| 41 | 1559#44 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 34.6% | |
| 42 | 1562#42 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 7.3% | 14.9% | 31.1% | |
| 43 | 1575#41 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 7.3% | 15.1% | 31.6% | |
| 44 | 1517#46 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.3% | 6.9% | 14.3% | 30% | |
| 45 | 1534#45 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 7.1% | 14.9% | 31.8% | |
| 46 | 1561#43 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 5.7% | 11.8% | 25% | |
| 47 | 1438#47 | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 24.2% | |
| 48 | 1411#48 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 11.1% | 25% |
Group stage matrix
Group B
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Switzerland49%31%15%95%
Canada25%32%29%76%
Bosnia and Herzegovina17%24%34%57%
Qatar8%12%21%25%
Group C
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Brazil46%32%17%95%
Morocco28%32%27%83%
Scotland17%23%33%60%
Haiti9%13%22%30%
Group D
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Turkiye30%27%24%78%
Paraguay26%26%25%71%
USA24%24%26%67%
Australia21%22%25%60%
Group E
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Germany39%33%22%91%
Ecuador34%33%24%88%
Cote d'Ivoire19%24%35%64%
Curacao8%11%19%24%
Group F
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Netherlands40%32%20%92%
Japan31%32%25%85%
Sweden19%23%32%63%
Tunisia10%13%22%31%
Group G
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Belgium39%31%21%88%
IR Iran29%30%27%78%
Egypt21%25%30%64%
New Zealand11%14%22%32%
Group H
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Spain60%28%9%98%
Uruguay21%36%29%81%
Cabo Verde10%19%32%44%
Saudi Arabia9%17%30%40%
Group I
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
France47%32%17%96%
Norway28%33%28%86%
Senegal18%24%36%68%
Iraq7%11%20%25%
Group J
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Argentina57%29%11%98%
Austria19%31%31%74%
Algeria15%25%33%61%
Jordan9%15%25%34%
Group K
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
Portugal38%33%21%92%
Colombia36%33%22%91%
Congo DR15%20%32%54%
Uzbekistan11%15%25%36%
Group L
Team1st2nd3rdAdv.
England45%33%17%95%
Croatia32%34%24%88%
Panama14%20%34%51%
Ghana9%13%25%32%
Model transparency
ProbabilityGrid uses the real 48-team FIFA World Cup 2026 group field and source-backed Elo ratings. Sliders adjust only the selected team for scenario testing; the app is still an exploratory model, not official FIFA odds or bookmaker pricing.